2013 Predictions Scorecard

I made some predictions for 2013 just about a year ago. Let’s take a look and see how I did…

2013prediction

Nearly every technology website I know of or frequent takes a stab at tech predictions for the New Year.  Some try to be bold. Some stay close to reality.  I tend to lean that way, myself. If I’m going to put myself out there, I’d rather analyze the trends and use that as a basis to make predictions from.  As such, I have been no different over the years. I try to prognosticate around those trends and then put it out there. However, like most of the other sites, I often fail to go back and see how I did.  Did I get it right?  How accurate was I?  Was I even close??

Well, this year, I found LAST year’s predictions and I’m gonna run through them quickly and then grade myself on how well I did. I had 5 predictions last year (6 with a bonus gaze into the crystal ball…) and I’m going to give myself a max of 2 points per prediction depending on how right, or (more likely) how close I was to what actually transpired.  I’m using a 2 point system simply because it’s easier to grade myself that way. I don’t want to make this too complicated.  Let’s dive in and see how things went.

  1. BB10 Fails – I get 2 points here. BB10 made its debut and quickly went…nowhere. The OS was so poorly received that it caused a major issue for the company. Blackberry (still RIM to many people at the beginning of 2013) reported a loss of over $4B USD last quarter of the year, as well as a CEO switch. Blackberry’s outlook for 2014 doesn’t look any brighter, either.  They’ve farmed the manufacturing of devices out to FoxConn in China and are instead going to concentrate on the OS. This may prove to be a challenge for Blackberry, as they’ve let a great many of their development staff go.  Retaining current or acquiring new development resources is going to be a challenge for them, as I’m not entirely certain they are a safe bet going forward.
  2. RIM Declines, is Purchased by Dell or Microsoft  I get 1 point here.  The company did tank, and they were nearly purchased; but it wasn’t by either Dell or Microsoft.  Blackberry has decided to focus on their enterprise customer base, but unfortunately, I was right about many enterprise users seeing that Blackberry doesn’t have the exclusive lock on Push that it did back in the day.  As such, enterprise users have a wide variety of choices available to them when it comes to mobile messaging.  I think those customers would be smart to bypass Blackberry and choose one of the other options. Getting in too deep with Blackberry could be problematic at this point. I don’t see them sticking around much longer…
  3.  Microsoft Surface RT Products Don’t Survive 2013  I am going to give myself 1 point here. Again, I was close, but it didn’t quite happen the way that I thought it would.  Microsoft took a $900M charge in 2013 , fired Ballmer, totally reorged the company and killed the Windows RT brand, in large part due to the issues and problems with Surface and Windows 8.  However, Microsoft, instead of killing the product line and marching on with something else, has decided to respin Surface, and made very quiet, but strategically sound, partnerships with organizations like the NFL and CBS.  If you watched the NFL Wild Card playoff games on CBS, you’ll notice that each NFL analyst had a Microsoft Surface 2/Surface 2 Pro device, with Type Cover, sitting in front of them.  That, along with the strong 2013 Holiday sales that Surface 2/ Surface 2 Pro enjoyed, may just have saved the product line – and Microsoft for that matter – from an early demise.
  4. Windows 8 is Declared a flop  Yeah… unfortunately, I get 2 points here. Windows 8 is a total disaster; and despite the success that Surface 2/ Surface 2 Pro enjoyed over the 2013 Holiday Sales Season, Microsoft has very quietly admitted defeat with Windows 8. They brought back the Start Button, and gave users the ability to boot straight to the desktop; but that wasn’t enough for most users who are too entrenched into the Aero way of life. Microsoft killed the Windows RT brand and has announced that it will bring back the Start Menu (to what degree remains unknown as of this writing) in what is being currently called Windows 8.1 Update 1, sometime in the Spring of 2014.
  5. No Public Jailbreak of iOS 6 will be Released  Yeah… I blew this one. Before I upgraded my iPhone from iOS 6.x, I jail broke it for, like all of 27 seconds. I quickly put it back, because Cydia and its contents are a hot mess, and there really isn’t anything that I could find from the alternative software store that I wanted or felt safe installing on my iDevice.  However, a public jailbreak for iOS 6.x did get released. It took a while; but it happened.
  6. Competition between Apple & Samsung heats up with Revamped Apple TV  I don’t get any extra credit, either. I really thought that Apple would release the iTV, or what ever it would have been called, last year. Unfortunately, I’m leaving this prediction in the past. I don’t see this happening any time soon, as there are a number of content provider issues that must first be ironed out before this hits the market with any real success, and unfortunately, I really just don’t see those deals getting done.

At the end of the day (or year) I scored 6/10, or 60%.  That’s not too bad…its better than some of the other prediction recaps I saw or listened to in the past week or so.  How did you do?  Did you make any tech predictions last year?  Did they come true/were you accurate?  I’d love to hear what you have to say in the comments, below. Why not weigh in and tell us how YOU did?

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Top 5 Tech Predictions for 2013

Technology-Predictions-For-2013Here are my top 5 predictions for 2013:

2012 was a changing year for technology. Mountain Lion, Windows 8, the iPad Mini and Google’s release of Jelly Bean are among the hot releases of the year. There were obviously a great many more.

2013 is going to be pivotal for technology as a number of other developments capture the lime light and bring Nerd-dome into the average American home. In no particular order, here are my top five predictions for 2013.

1. BB10 Fails
Despite its best efforts to right the ship, RIM’s much heralded Blackberry 10 OS and associated devices are met with lukewarm to no public interest. Enterprise sales never take off, as users are more interested in using their own iOS or Android device at work.

2. RIM Declines, is Purchased by Dell or Microsoft
Because BB10 flops, interest in RIM’s associated new devices dwindles to next to nothing. Once their existing enterprise customers see how the new devices are received, many more jump ship for greener iOS and/or Android pastures. This dramatic drop in enterprise revenue is going to get a lot of play by the tech media and press and Wall Street’s reaction won’t be kind. Their stock will drop sharply, making them an easy target for acquisition. Likely buyers will be either Dell or Microsoft, the latter will be interested in RIM for their IP/patents. Dell, if successful in purchasing RIM, will try to make a go of it as RIM Part Deux, but that will fail too, as the whole BB BIS/BES model has been obsoleted by Exchange ActiveSync and other sync options offered by both Apple and Google.

3. Microsoft Surface RT Products Don’t Survive 2013
Microsoft’s Surface RT tablet is having trouble with adoption. While its thin and light and very portable, consumers don’t understand Windows RT and Enterprises are interested in a 1.0 version of ANYTHING. As such, Surface RT dies as Microsoft can’t justify sustaining the product in the consumer market. As such, Microsoft abandons Surface RT near the end of Q2 2013 in favor of the much more enterprise friendly and consumer understood Surface Pro, but its price-point is set so high (starting at $899), that consumers ignore it for more affordable, traditional Windows 8 laptops or ultrabooks. By mid-2013, Microsoft will begin drastically discounting Surface Pro tablets in order to generate interest and sales. Eventually, MS will discover that they aren’t making any money on the devices and will announce and/or discontinue them before the end of 2013 as well.

4. Windows 8 is Declared a flop
Sales of Windows 8 have been less than impressive. Consumers don’t understand it. Microsoft has “moved their cheese.” Enterprises won’t adopt it until much, much later. Many companies are still using Windows XP, let alone, Windows 7, and it’s been out for more than 3 years. 2013 will be a huge sales target and opportunity missed for Windows 8, as it doesn’t do well without a touch screen, and most legacy hardware doesn’t have it. Legacy styled laptops won’t incorporate them, and so, sales of Windows 8 will go nowhere, thus creating a bigger flop than WindowsME or Windows Vista.

5. No Public Jailbreak of iOS 6 will be Released
Every published jailbreak of IOS shows Apple exactly what bugs have been exploited in order for RedSn0w to work any of its Cydiaic Magic. It was recently announced that a jailbreak was created by the DevTeam; but wouldn’t be immediately released. The DevTeam wanted to hold back a bit, as iOS 6.1 is scheduled to be released soon, and usually with every new release of iOS, the current jailbreak is broken, requiring rework by the DevTeam to rejailbreak it. Given that it’s getting harder and harder for the DevTeam to jailbreak the mobile OS, I predict that the DevTeam will likely hold back releasing any jailbreak for iOS 6 until iOS 7 is released; or at least until they get a better understanding of where Apple is taking their mobile OS and can see how difficult it will be for them to continue to provide any kind of support, OR if it would be better to branch out and pursue another to-be-determined direction.

BONUS. Competition between Apple & Samsung heats up with Revamped Apple TV
2013 will see competition between Apple and Samsung reach new levels in and out of the courtroom. Apple will most likely take competition with their Korean rivals to the next level by releasing a TV with an enhanced version of their popular set top box built-in, an enhanced update to their popular set top box, or both. Apple will cut some new content deals with a few low-end content providers, but the larger ones – cable companies, cable operators, etc.) will still be missing. Apple will get close enough to cracking this nut to kick off another new round of anti-trust/patent litigation with those that don’t sign with them or with other competing companies like Samsung, Sony, etc.

I have no idea how accurate these will be. We’ll have to revisit them near the end of 2013 to see how accurate or out to lunch I was.

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