Expect Windows 10 to RTM this Week

This is either a good thing, or a not so good thing…

As a SDLC (Software Development Life Cycle) professional with over 25 years in QA, releases are always a mixed bag of emotions. I’ve heard some SDLC professionals say that software is ever “released,” it escapes. The more that I think about that statement, especially in light with all of my personal, professional experience, I can’t help but agree. As a QA guy… you always want more time with a project before you release it into the wild. Sometimes, though, it doesn’t work out that way…

I think this is going to be how things work with the release of Windows 10. The way things have been going over the life of the beta since Windows Insiders started testing in October 2014, it’s been a bit rough. Here are the articles I’ve published on Windows 10 since the Technical Preview started. Please note these are in reverse order, with the most recent listed on top:

There’s a lot there. Thirty (30) articles is a lot for around six months. That’s about one article a week, at least; and when you consider that we’re in the home stretch, there’s likely to be a number of different builds pushed to Windows Insiders, up to, and past the 2015-07-29 scheduled release date.

I say scheduled, because I’m a QA guy, and the QA guy in me says, it ain’t done cooking yet.

What does that mean, REALLY? Well, there are a couple things that have come to light today – 2015-07-06 – as I write this article, and they’re really kinda telling.

First and foremost, Windows 10 is reportedly supposed to RTM (that’s Release to Manufacturing, to the uninitiated…) sometime this week. That means that at some point this week, Microsoft will need to deliver a build of Windows 10 to all its OEM partners so they can start building machines with the final version of Windows 10 installed on them. In the past, that has usually meant that the Windows Development Teams are done with development and can shift gears to post implementation support (meaning, they have bug fixes and Windows Update updates and patches to create, test and deliver. When have you NOT bought a Windows computer, set it up and then waited (what seems like) days for it to download and install a boat load of updates via Windows Update?

Well, according to another recent development, that’s going to happen again. Only this time, it could be a much longer wait.

Microsoft recently announced that Windows 10 Insiders would be the first ones to get Windows 10 once its available on 2015-07-29. There are roughly over 5 million of us as of this writing, and that’s going to clog up the Windows Update servers for a good WEEK or more, at LEAST, before all 5 million plus, get the RTM bits. After that, the OS will be made available to the general public, according to your reserved place in line – read, your reservation [number]. It’s going to be a good long while before the rest of the world gets their first taste of Windows 10.

Let’s take a good look at that last sentence there – It’s going to be a good long while before the rest of the world gets their first taste of Windows 10.

If you read between the lines, this smacks of “delayed deployment.” In other words, it can be interpreted that Windows 10 isn’t ready, and what’s likely to be the case is that a number of updates as well as potential new builds will be released to everyone in that release chain before it hits the general public. OEM’s may install (and I’m totally making this number up…) Build 10200 on their systems as the RTM build, but by the time early adopters get new, native Windows 10 machines in their hands, they may need to download Build 10299 (or greater – internal builds not released to even Insiders may take up a lot of build numbers between RTM and the build end users actually have installed on their machines after initial setup and updating is done) on their machines.

This is both good and bad.

It’s good because Microsoft should be continuing to update Windows 10 to resolve bugs, provide finish and polish to the OS as a whole. It’s bad because a build is anywhere between 2.5GB to 4GB in size depending on your processor type (32bit or 64bit, respectively). Users also don’t want to have to wait to download a whole bunch of updates before they start using a new PC, either. Making them wait is just Microsoft begging for bad press.

And it seems its already getting some on this particular issue, too.

The best and easiest way to insure that you get Windows 10 either on, or as close to Release Day as possible, is to join the Windows Insider program.

According to Microsoft News, 2015-07-09 is Windows 10 RTM Day. They also state that Microsoft is currently testing Build 10176 on their internal, TH1 branch. It’s also supposed to be the first internal release candidate. If that’s the case, Fast Ring Insiders should expect at least one Build to be released to them this week. My guess is that we’ll see at least two (2), with a potential for a third, like last week. However, that’s going to depend on the amount of usable feedback Microsoft got on that rapid fire, three build release. As I said… I’d expect two (2).

What do you think? Will Windows 10 be ready to go at the end of the week? Will the RTM Build be usable, or will it contain issues that will REQUIRE an immediate, end user upgrade to the latest build as soon as your new PC is turned on? How big of a PR or perception issue will that be? Will Microsoft’s new, rapid release effort cause people to blow their bandwidth caps? Will it create a multi-build download requirement, or will all builds be cumulative updates? Is this a good idea, or just a disaster waiting to happen?

I’d love to hear from you. Why don’t you give me your perspective on this issue in the discussion area below, and let’s figure it out.

Expect Windows 10 to RTM this Week

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