I made some predictions for 2013 just about a year ago. Let’s take a look and see how I did…
Nearly every technology website I know of or frequent takes a stab at tech predictions for the New Year. Some try to be bold. Some stay close to reality. I tend to lean that way, myself. If I’m going to put myself out there, I’d rather analyze the trends and use that as a basis to make predictions from. As such, I have been no different over the years. I try to prognosticate around those trends and then put it out there. However, like most of the other sites, I often fail to go back and see how I did. Did I get it right? How accurate was I? Was I even close??
Well, this year, I found LAST year’s predictions and I’m gonna run through them quickly and then grade myself on how well I did. I had 5 predictions last year (6 with a bonus gaze into the crystal ball…) and I’m going to give myself a max of 2 points per prediction depending on how right, or (more likely) how close I was to what actually transpired. I’m using a 2 point system simply because it’s easier to grade myself that way. I don’t want to make this too complicated. Let’s dive in and see how things went.
- BB10 Fails – I get 2 points here. BB10 made its debut and quickly went…nowhere. The OS was so poorly received that it caused a major issue for the company. Blackberry (still RIM to many people at the beginning of 2013) reported a loss of over $4B USD last quarter of the year, as well as a CEO switch. Blackberry’s outlook for 2014 doesn’t look any brighter, either. They’ve farmed the manufacturing of devices out to FoxConn in China and are instead going to concentrate on the OS. This may prove to be a challenge for Blackberry, as they’ve let a great many of their development staff go. Retaining current or acquiring new development resources is going to be a challenge for them, as I’m not entirely certain they are a safe bet going forward.
- RIM Declines, is Purchased by Dell or Microsoft – I get 1 point here. The company did tank, and they were nearly purchased; but it wasn’t by either Dell or Microsoft. Blackberry has decided to focus on their enterprise customer base, but unfortunately, I was right about many enterprise users seeing that Blackberry doesn’t have the exclusive lock on Push that it did back in the day. As such, enterprise users have a wide variety of choices available to them when it comes to mobile messaging. I think those customers would be smart to bypass Blackberry and choose one of the other options. Getting in too deep with Blackberry could be problematic at this point. I don’t see them sticking around much longer…
- Microsoft Surface RT Products Don’t Survive 2013 – I am going to give myself 1 point here. Again, I was close, but it didn’t quite happen the way that I thought it would. Microsoft took a $900M charge in 2013 , fired Ballmer, totally reorged the company and killed the Windows RT brand, in large part due to the issues and problems with Surface and Windows 8. However, Microsoft, instead of killing the product line and marching on with something else, has decided to respin Surface, and made very quiet, but strategically sound, partnerships with organizations like the NFL and CBS. If you watched the NFL Wild Card playoff games on CBS, you’ll notice that each NFL analyst had a Microsoft Surface 2/Surface 2 Pro device, with Type Cover, sitting in front of them. That, along with the strong 2013 Holiday sales that Surface 2/ Surface 2 Pro enjoyed, may just have saved the product line – and Microsoft for that matter – from an early demise.
- Windows 8 is Declared a flop – Yeah… unfortunately, I get 2 points here. Windows 8 is a total disaster; and despite the success that Surface 2/ Surface 2 Pro enjoyed over the 2013 Holiday Sales Season, Microsoft has very quietly admitted defeat with Windows 8. They brought back the Start Button, and gave users the ability to boot straight to the desktop; but that wasn’t enough for most users who are too entrenched into the Aero way of life. Microsoft killed the Windows RT brand and has announced that it will bring back the Start Menu (to what degree remains unknown as of this writing) in what is being currently called Windows 8.1 Update 1, sometime in the Spring of 2014.
- No Public Jailbreak of iOS 6 will be Released – Yeah… I blew this one. Before I upgraded my iPhone from iOS 6.x, I jail broke it for, like all of 27 seconds. I quickly put it back, because Cydia and its contents are a hot mess, and there really isn’t anything that I could find from the alternative software store that I wanted or felt safe installing on my iDevice. However, a public jailbreak for iOS 6.x did get released. It took a while; but it happened.
- Competition between Apple & Samsung heats up with Revamped Apple TV – I don’t get any extra credit, either. I really thought that Apple would release the iTV, or what ever it would have been called, last year. Unfortunately, I’m leaving this prediction in the past. I don’t see this happening any time soon, as there are a number of content provider issues that must first be ironed out before this hits the market with any real success, and unfortunately, I really just don’t see those deals getting done.
At the end of the day (or year) I scored 6/10, or 60%. That’s not too bad…its better than some of the other prediction recaps I saw or listened to in the past week or so. How did you do? Did you make any tech predictions last year? Did they come true/were you accurate? I’d love to hear what you have to say in the comments, below. Why not weigh in and tell us how YOU did?